PMP Practice: Determine Critical Information Requirements

Pepper Lindström-Ali is managing a municipal water treatment facility upgrade for Elif Karahan Authority. During integrated planning, she receives three-point duration estimates from the engineering team for the critical filtration system installation activity. The optimistic estimate is 18 days, the most likely estimate is 24 days, and the pessimistic estimate is 42 days. The sponsor has asked Lila to provide a realistic expected duration for this critical path activity to finalize the project schedule baseline. The sponsor emphasized that this duration will be used for regulatory compliance reporting and contractor performance bonds, so accuracy is essential. Using the beta distribution method for three-point estimation, what expected duration should Lila report?