Delphi Technique
The Delphi technique is an iterative, anonymous forecasting and consensus-building method where experts provide estimates or opinions in multiple rounds, with summarized feedback between rounds.
Explanation
The Delphi technique gathers expert opinions through multiple rounds of anonymous questionnaires. After each round, a facilitator summarizes the responses and shares them with the group, allowing experts to revise their estimates in light of the aggregated feedback. This process continues until the group reaches a satisfactory level of consensus.
The key advantage of the Delphi technique is anonymity, which eliminates the influence of dominant personalities, groupthink, and the pressure to conform. It is particularly useful when experts are geographically dispersed, when the topic is highly uncertain or controversial, or when unbiased expert estimates are needed for activities like risk assessment and duration estimating.
While the Delphi technique produces high-quality consensus estimates, it is more time-consuming than other techniques due to its iterative nature. Project managers should plan adequate time for multiple rounds and ensure that the facilitator summarizes feedback accurately and objectively.
Key Points
- •Anonymous participation eliminates bias from dominant personalities
- •Iterative rounds with summarized feedback drive convergence toward consensus
- •Ideal for geographically dispersed experts or controversial topics
- •More time-consuming than single-round techniques but produces higher-quality consensus
Exam Tip
If a question emphasizes anonymity and iterative rounds to reach consensus, the answer is the Delphi technique. It is distinct from NGT, which is conducted face-to-face.
Frequently Asked Questions
Related Topics
Wideband Delphi
Wideband Delphi is a consensus-based estimation technique that extends the Delphi method by adding team discussion between anonymous estimation rounds to improve estimate accuracy.
Expert Judgment
Expert judgment is the application of specialized knowledge or training from individuals or groups with expertise in a specific area to guide project decisions.
Nominal Group Technique
Nominal group technique (NGT) is a structured decision-making method that enhances brainstorming with silent idea generation followed by group discussion and ranked voting to prioritize ideas.
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